Twitter staff worldwide scan emails to see if they still have jobs.

• Wall Street bonuses could plunge this year

• UK housing market is starting to go wrong

• German factory orders continued to decline in September, adding to concerns that Europe’s largest economy is slipping into recession as it struggles with surging energy costs.

• The great rate debate rattles on as the UK economy flounders.

• Twitter staff worldwide scan emails to see if they still have jobs.

• Electricite de France cut its power-production outlook for the fourth time this year, dealing yet another blow to Europe's energy system as winter approaches.

• Stocks end the week on an up note after a mixed jobs report.

• Trump likely to announce candidacy after the midterms.

• China’s venture capital investments have plunged this year.

• China vows to stick to Covid Zero. 

• COP27 begins with a breakthrough deal.

• Twitter asks dozens of sacked workers to return to work.

• China vows to stick with Covid Zero.

• Apple cuts outlook for iPhone shipments.

• Even central banks are buying gold for the zombie apocalypse.

• El Salvador’s $300 million Bitcoin revolution is failing miserably.

• Methane clouds spotted in China by high-resolution satellite.

• The US is nudging Ukraine to talk to Russia.

• Bullying claim in Sunak’s cabinet.

• Meta may start job cuts affecting thousands of employees from Wednesday, the WSJ reported.

• China's exports fell for the first time in more than two years in October.

• Binance to sell $529 million of Bankman-Fried’s FTT token.

The U.S changed their clocks the weekend so if you are in Europe things recert back to normal times for data.

There will be a lot of focus on the midterm elections in the U.S on Tuesday.

NFP was higher than expected at 261k. Although the jobs available to unemployed ration lifted again to 1.9:1, I expect this to drop as jobs are withdrawn and companies, especially in tech start to downsize their workforce.

I guess you could say, FAANGs aren’t what they used to be! Tech stocks over Covid were the darlings that generated the most return for investors. Unfortunately, this year they have been a weight around the neck. With a recession nearing, consumers will cope with their current model of phone, tablet, or computer rather than upgrade. That will probably have to wait until 2024!

Global News

Appetite for risk taking slumped as trading got underway Monday, sending the dollar higher and damping the prospect for gains in stocks. All Group-of-10 currencies fell against the greenback, with notable declines in the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which are sensitive to the outlook for Chinese economic growth. The offshore yuan also weakened. Stocks had looked poised to advance in Asia after the S&P 500 halted a four-day slide Friday, until the news came of China’s intention to adhere to Covid Zero. BB

Elon Musk’s rocky takeover of Twitter continues. A class-action lawsuit was filed Thursday in San Francisco against the social media platform over Musk’s plan to eliminate about 3,700 jobs. Workers say Twitter is not providing enough notice in violation of federal and California law. Meanwhile, Musk has removed “days of rest” from staff calendars and plans to cancel the company’s remote work policy, according to people familiar with the matter.  BB

It’s not just Twitter fighting battles —  the rest of Big Tech is struggling, too. Amazon said Thursday it would pause adding new corporate workers, citing an “uncertain” economy and its hiring boom in recent years. Ride-hailing company Lyft is going further: It will eliminate 13% of staff, or around 683 people. Even Apple, which has outperformed most of its peers this year, is slowing spending and has paused much of its hiring. BB

China is working on plans to scrap a system that penalizes airlines for bringing virus cases into the country, according to people familiar with the matter, a sign authorities are looking for ways to ease the impact of the Covid Zero policy. The prospect of the world’s second-biggest economy opening up, however speculative, fueled a frenzy in Chinese stocks after nearly two years of disappointment and $6 trillion of losses. BB

Rumblings around the level of UK interest rates continue as signs of economic weakness mount. Here's the latest:

• BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill said rates must go higher still to ensure inflation is brought back to its 2% target, But he reiterated that the peak rate of 5.25% priced in by the market is too high.

• The central bank will "shortly" reveal how it plans to sell bonds it bought to help stave off the recent Liz Truss-induced disorderly market rout.

• Former BOE boss Mark Carney pointed to Brexit as a key reason why the bank is now having to hike rates in its struggle to contain inflation.

• The property market faces severe disruption as it adapts to life after ultra-low rates. The warning signs are flashing as the era of low house prices may be about to begin. BB

The UK car market is on course for its worst sales year since 1982 as supply chain issues hamper output and the cost-of-living crisis deters buyers. BB

The US held confidential talks with Russia in an effort to reduce the risk of a broader conflict in Ukraine and to warn the Kremlin against using nuclear weapons, the WSJ reported. Ukraine is being encouraged by the Biden administration to signal an openness to negotiate with Moscow, according to the Washington Post.BB

Rishi Sunak faces mounting unrest in his ruling Conservative Party as questions swirl about his judgment after a key ally and cabinet member was accused of bullying. Gavin Williamson faces a complaint over a series of expletive-filled texts he sent to a colleague. BB

• The UK currency fell 2% versus the US dollar last week, its worst performance since late September and the biggest drop among major currencies globally.

• What's next: Sterling may be set for further losses, with banks including Mitsubishi UFJ and BofA predicting a fall below $1.10 by the end of the year. BB

• Almost a fifth of young UK homeowners will be trapped in so-called "negative equity" in 2023 if house prices drop 7.9% as predicted by Lloyds, the Resolution Foundation said. Current rate expectations would add £3,700 to their annual mortgage costs on average by the end of 2026.

European households are paying more than ever for energy, even as governments spend billions to ease the pain. The average retail gas price across the EU and Britain was almost 18 euro cents per kilowatt-hour in October, double what it was in the same month last year, according to VaasaETT. BB

Twitter staff around the world began getting notifications that they were locked out of their work accounts—aka being fired—a week after Elon Musk took over the company. There’s been a “massive drop in revenue,” he said, even though no changes have been made to the platform. BB

Twitter is asking dozens of employees who were sacked at the end of last week to return to the to the company. Around 3,700 workers lost their jobs after Elon Musk’s takeover, but some of them were laid off by mistake, while others were let go before management realized their work and experience may be necessary to build the new features Musk envisions, sources say. At the weekend, Twitter rolled out its new $8 subscription, which gives those who sign up a blue verification checkmark. Meanwhile, workers at Meta start the week on edge as the Facebook giant plans to begin laying off thousands of workers. BB

Very, very, very probably. Donald Trump is tentatively planning to announce a 2024 run after the midterms, eyeing the week of Nov. 14 to drop the news, though no specific date has been chosen yet. Meanwhile, his longtime friend Tom Barrack was acquitted on charges that he tried to influence the Trump campaign as an agent of the UAE. BB

Plastic pain. The Fed’s latest rate hike is set to cost credit card holders $5.1 billion in interest over the next year, according to a WalletHub estimate. With average APRs hitting a 25-year high, consumers are increasingly being forced to swipe plastic to keep up with soaring prices while also facing higher borrowing costs. BB

Chinese markets face another volatile week after health officials vowed to "unswervingly" stick to Covid Zero, damping last week's investor optimism that Beijing was working toward easing curbs. Declines could be limited if China adds economic stimulus, as expected. Goldman said it still expects a gradual path to reopening in mid-2023.

• Guangzhou reported a surge in infections, and Zhengzhou pledged more-focused virus controls. BB

The Australian dollar led major currencies lower at the start of the week's trading. The offshore yuan also weakened. BB

COP27: Over 100 world leaders descend into Egypt for the summit, which began yesterday. In a breakthrough, delegates agreed to reach a deal on who pays for damage by extreme weather events by "no later than 2024."

• China's top envoy for climate change called for more aid to developing nations.

• Australia said it will be an "active" and "willing" participant at the conference, even as the country's exports of dirty fuels soar.

• Japan said it will announce measures to help emerging economies cope with heavy rains and other effects of global warming. BB

Billionaire donors have ramped up contributions to Republicans ahead of the US midterm elections. Citadel’s Ken Griffin, Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman and Oracle founder Larry Ellison are among those giving GOP candidates a boost in their bid to take control of Congress. Polls seem to show the Democratic Party’s prospects of retaining control of both chambers are getting slimmer thanks to inflation. Nevertheless, in the wake of a Republican-appointed majority of the Supreme Court striking down Roe v. Wade, abortion rights ballot measures may still draw more Democratic voters to the polls. BB

Apple said it expects lower shipments of its newest iPhones than previously anticipated after China lockdowns affected operations at a supplier’s factory. The company says it continues to see strong demand for the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max models, but the lockdowns mean “customers will experience longer wait times to receive their new products.” The Foxconn plant was ordered to operate within a self-contained bubble that limits contact with the outside world. BB

EU officials are warning their counterparts in the US that recently enacted green legislation risks creating tensions that may lead to “reciprocal measures,” according to a document submitted to Washington.  The bloc wants the US to remove discriminatory content and production requirements in the Inflation Reduction Act — which offers billions of dollars in incentives for renewable energy companies — and to receive the same treatment as other US trading partners. The dispute, which comes as the UN’s climate conference kicked off yesterday in Egypt, will be discussed among the bloc’s finance ministers when they gather in Brussels from today. France’s Bruno Le Maire called for swift EU action, saying in an interview with European newspapers published today that he wants a “coordinated, unified and strong answer to our American allies.” BB

Commodities

The US and its partners agreed to set a price cap on Russian crude oil at a fixed level, rather than a floating one that moves with benchmark prices, officials familiar said. It's not clear yet what it'll be.

Global coal power generation may set a record for a second-straight year and remains the world's biggest source of electricity, despite contributing most to planet-warming emissions.

• Consumption has surged in Europe to replace shortfalls in hydro, nuclear and Russian gas, while China is extracting record volumes from mines to insulate itself from volatile global energy markets.

• That'll complicate a meeting of world leaders for climate talks in Egypt this weekend after last year's promises to "consign coal to history." BB

The world will probably lose a lot of Russian crude when tighter sanctions and a price cap take effect next month—but that may not be so bad, Julian Lee writes. Given demand is already in decline amid high prices, a strong dollar and central bank tightening, the market faces a supply surplus without the expected Russian cuts. BB

Crypto/Digital

Crypto funding fell to $4.4 billion, the least since early 2021 and Coinbase said it sees a risk of sustained lower revenue for years. BB

USDC issuer Circle will park a portion of its stablecoin-backing reserves with asset management giant BlackRock. The new Circle Reserve Fund is a "money market vehicle managed by BlackRock Advisors."

• As far as crypto business news goes, today’s Circle announcement is certainly notable. But it’s the BlackRock bit that’s got me thinking.

• It’s not gone unnoticed that crypto-tied BlackRock news has been surfacing with increasing regularity in recent months. 

• A private bitcoin trust. A data deal with Kraken. An institutional investment deal with Coinbase. An effort, disclosed last spring, to more deeply understand the crypto space.

• More to come, perhaps? But it’s undeniable that BlackRock is quietly spreading its wings in the space. Today’s news is the latest link in the chain.

Elon Musk turned heads for the umpteenth time the other day after tweeting a picture of a Shiba Inu wearing a Twitter T-shirt. This, of course, led to a horde of newly created garbage cryptocurrencies* and a pump in the price of dogecoin.

Market levels (all analysis is based on CME futures contracts)

DISCLAIMER.

The content of this daily newsletter should only be considered a guide and views, opinions or content contained in this email is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade or invest.

Chris Tubby

Senior Director Trading and Education

Symax Fintech